Wikis s BAG Archives: Australia Related (Part-6)

219319
8/4/2009 6:07
09CANBERRA709
Embassy Canberra
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN

09CANBERRA673

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000709 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2019 TAGS: AS, PGOV, PREL

SUBJECT: SUBJECT: RUDD RULES AT LABOR NATIONAL CONFERENCE

REF: CANBERRA 673 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR JAMES F. COLE. RSON: 1.4 (C)

1. (SBU) SUMMARY The ruling Australian Labor Party's (ALP) National Conference displayed unprecedented cohesion and provided further evidence of Prime Minister Rudd's authority over the party. Although journalists derided it as boring, party officials believe the conference gave the public what it wanted: the of a united party focused on steering Australia through economic challenges. Gay marriage and industrial relations caused some tensions, but these were worked out behind the scenes. Significantly, not one issue required a formal vote. The conference affirmed the ALP's strong support for the Australia/US Alliance. The Defense Minister successfully moved a resolution pledging the party to continue support for the fight in Afghanistan. On the debit side, the ALP platform projected a very negative position on national missile defense (MD). A setback for the ALP was Employment Participation Minister Mark Arbib's embarrassing inability to explain the details of Rudd's "Green Jobs" announcement. End summary.

MEDIA FRUSTRATED BY SERENE GATHERING

2. (SBU) The 45th ALP National Conference was held in Sydney July 30 - August 1. Prior to the conference, a draft 2009 platform was circulated (reftel). Amendments were proposed and "debated" but these were agreed behind the scenes by the factions. No formal vote was required on any issue. Incrsingly, ALP National Conferences are stage-managed showpieces for party unity and the party lder. Journalists were frustrated that there was little controversy; some even questioned the point of the conference. However, ALP insiders maintained to us the public wants a united party that is focused on solving the nation's problems. Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard said: "I know it wasn't all that much fun for the media but we're not entertainers, we're a political party in government."

FACTIONS WORKING WELL TOGETHER

3. (SBU) One senior figure told us the factions have "never worked as well together". He opined that the end of the Cold War had played a big part in blurring the ideological divide between the Left and Right, pointing out that the Defense and Finance Ministers are notionally from the Left. It was erally accepted that Rudd government Ministers and power brokers Mark Arbib (Right) and Anthony Albanese (Left) were Rudd's conduits to the factions.

RUDD TRIES TO INSPIRE RANK AND FILE

4. (SBU) Rudd's speech to the conference appred designed to appl to ALP "true believers" and the Left - possibly because he is an "outsider" in the ALP (e.g. he is not close to the unions). Rudd praised the achievements of past ALP governments and derided the "free market fundamentalism" of the Right. The Rudd government had apologized to indious Australians; ratified Kyoto; abolished WorkChoices; softened immigration policy; and withdrawn combat forces from Iraq. Rudd declared Labor was a "nation building" party which believes "unapologetically in the role of government". He urged delegates to commit to a "long term reformist government," reminding them that the ALP had only been in power one third of the time since federation.

ARBIB FUMBLES

5. (SBU) In a major announcement, Rudd unveiled an initiative for "50,000 new green jobs" - traineeships and apprenticeships targeted at young Australians. However, in a television interview, Employment participation Minister Mark Qtelevision interview, Employment participation Minister Mark Arbib stumbled, admitting he didn't have the details of the proposal. The media and Opposition jumped on this. The next day, Rudd conceded that Arbib "didn't have the best of days". Arbib's career has flourished under Rudd so it was not surprising that some of his detractors in the party took plsure in his embarrassing performance.

SOME TENSIONS OVER INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS & GAY MARRIAGE

6. (SBU As predicted, there were tensions over the Rudd government's retention of the building industry watchdog; Left-lning unions marched in protest outside the conference. Union powerbrokers and the government rched a compromise which essentially mns the government will seek to reduce specialist oversight of the industry, but in keeping with Labor's 2007 election commitment. The issue which caused most tension at the conference was the push from the Left, including Albanese, for legalized gay marriage (the Marriage Act only applies to heterosexual couples). At one point, a Right Ministerial adviser - in contact with the Christian Lobby - told us he fred Rudd would be "rolled" over on this issue (Rudd undertook not to support gay marriage before he was elected). However, Rudd and the Right won. One MP told us the lack of debate on trade - usually a big issue for the unions - was an example of how well managed the conference was.

STRONG SUPPORT FOR US AND WAR IN AFGHANISTAN

7. (SBU) The Foreign and Defense chapter of the platform was approved without controversy. There were no amendments moved in relation to the draft platform's strong support for the US Alliance (reftel). Defense Minister Faulkner moved a resolution, seconded by Foreign Minister Smith, pledging the party's support for the war in Afghanistan. In a passionate speech, Faulkner said it was in Australia's interests to ensure Afghanistan is no longer a terrorist training ground. He said 100 Australians had died in terrorist attacks which made it incumbent on the government to ensure success in Afghanistan. Furthermore, he said abandoning the Afghan people would go against Labor tradition. Australia "can't ignore the strategic rlity". Some ALP figures told us there was a push from a small group in the Left for a withdrawal of troops, but that this was quelled.

BUT NEGATIVE WORDS ON NATIONAL BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE

8. (C/NF) In contrast to the strong support for the Australia - U.S Alliance voiced by the ALP lders and set down in the platform, on national ballistic missile defense (MD) the platform adopted by the Conference was not positive. It declared that MD "is disproportionate, technically questionable, costly and likely to be counterproductive. It also has the potential to undermine non-proliferation and derail world progress towards nuclr disarmament." The MD issue has long been a focus of ALP left-wing ire, stretching from an anti - "Star Wars" movement in the 1980s to present. (Note: The U.S. and Australia signed a 2004 MOU on MD cooperation, mainly in exercises and information sharing. The GOA is still considering its long-term position. When the Charge expressed to Defense Minister Faulkner on the eve of the Conference our disappointment with the strong draft language and contrasted it with assurances given rlier that the issue would be worked out within the party, Faulkner responded that the MD draft language had "dropped through the " during the transition following former Defense Minister Fitzgibbon's resignation several months ago.)

WIN FOR RUDD

9. (SBU) Comment: Though he received polite applause, there was not an overwhelming display of affection for Kevin Rudd displayed by the delegates - in contrast to traditional outpourings from the party faithful at these conventions. To many observers Mr. Rudd's speech was regarded as boring, and his rching out to the party faithful appred contrived. There was far grter warmth for former Prime Minister Bob Hawke - a charismatic former union official - who delivered a strong and entertaining speech with little reference to notes. Yet Rudd, to the bewilderment of many observers, remains highly popular with voters across the political spectrum. This is the bedrock of Rudd's unchallenged authority over the party. Rudd went to the conference wanting a united party and backing for his ada - he got that. It invites a contrast between the cohesion of Rudd's tm and the division in Malcolm Turnbull's Opposition. END COMMENT.

241344
12/23/2009 6:11
09CANBERRA1123
Embassy Canberra
CONFIDENTIAL

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CANBERRA 001123 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2019 TAGS: PGOV, AS

SUBJECT: RUDD GOVERNMENT REPORT CARD 2009

Classified By: Acting Political/Economic Counselor Forest Yang. Rson s 1.4 (b/d)

1. (C) SUMMARY: The Rudd government remained politically dominant in 2009, largely on the back of better than expected economic conditions, Rudd's enduring high popularity, government unity, and a dysfunctional opposition. Foreign Minister Smith stepped out of Rudd's shadow and the resignation of Joel Fitzgibbon as Defense Minister proved to be a blessing for the government. Support for the U.S. Alliance, and the mission in Afghanistan, remained strong. The relationship with China is recovering from tensions present rlier in the yr. Rudd continued his enthusiastic approach to "middle power diplomacy;" possibly his proudest achievement was the elevation of the role of the G20. However, Rudd's big first term reform - legislating for an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) - is in trouble. END SUMMARY.

"IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID" --------------------------

2. (C) Underpinning the government's popularity was the resilience of the economy due to continuing global demand for Australian resources and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. Inheriting a strong fiscal position, the Rudd government in 2009 continued its "stimulus" to firewall the economy against the global recession. The Opposition was shing of the government's second stimulus package, announced in February, pointing to rising government debt and questioning whether it would work. The government's disciplined messaging focused on jobs and nation building. In June, the government could barely contain its glee when the March quarter National Accounts showed Australia had avoided a technical recession. The Australian Labour Party (ALP)'s most senior strategist - ALP national Secretary Karl Bitar - told us this was extremely significant given the political importance of economic management; he said it was a devastating blow to the Opposition's critique.

TRSURER SWAN'S STOCKS RISE ----------------------------

3. (C) Sidestepping a recession was a triumph for Trsurer Wayne Swan, who strongly argued for the stimulus in Cabinet. Throughout 2008, Swan appred uncertain in his portfolio, was ridiculed by the Opposition and labeled a wk link by much of the press gallery. He was unfavorably compared to Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner. However, Swan,s confidence and performance improved in 2009, largely due to better than expected economic indiors. Of the "gang of four" - Rudd, Gillard, Tanner and Swan - involved in major economic decision making, Rudd has the most affinity with Swan.

SMITH THE QUIET ACHIEVER ------------------------

4. (C) Foreign Minister Stephen Smith in 2008 was widely regarded as having little power because of Rudd's interest in the portfolio and centralizing style. However, Smith has carefully avoided mistakes and has gradually stepped out of Rudd's shadow, indiing Rudd's growing confidence in his judgment. Arguably, the defining point of Smith's yr was on August 19 when he counter-attacked Opposition claims the Rudd government had bungled the China relationship. This followed China's failed bid to incrse its stake in mining giant Rio Tinto; the detention of an Australian mining executive; the Defense White Paper that took a hawkish approach to China; the granting of a visa to a Uighur activist; and China pulling out of the Pacific Islands Forum.

5. (C) Armed with the massive Gorgon LNG dl signed with Q5. (C) Armed with the massive Gorgon LNG dl signed with China the previous day, the phlegmatic Smith strongly debunked the Opposition's arguments, undermining the credibility of the Shadow Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, who was lding the charge against him. Since then Australia's relationship with China has improved, in no small part due to Smith's quiet, patient style. Similarly, in October, Smith effectively defended the government's border protection changes during the stand-off with Indonesia over 78 asylum seekers. On both issues, Smith made more coherent and persuasive cases than the Prime Minister.

FITZGIBBON DUMPED -----------------

6. (SBU) The Rudd government's first ministerial casualty occurred on June 4, when Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon resigned for brching the Prime Minister's of conduct. This turned out to be a blessing for the government as the experienced John Faulkner - who Rudd persuaded to take the CANBERRA 00001123 002 OF 003 portfolio - has mended fences with the Defense Department and is erally regarded as more competent than Fitzgibbon. The Fitzgibbon "scandal" had no impact the government's popularity. Government contacts are plsantly surprised at the lack of Ministerial sackings, comparing this to the first term of the Howard government when several ministers were forced to resign.

RISING STARS ------------

7. (C) Fitzgibbon's departure enabled Rudd to appoint rising stars Mark Butler, Richard Marles and Jason Clare as parliamentary secretaries. Another rising star, Chris Bowen, was promoted into the Cabinet despite overseeing the much-ridiculed "Fuelwatch" and "Grocerywatch" schemes. Labor Right factional powerbroker Mark Arbib - close to the Prime Minister - was rewarded with a ministry despite his inexperience. Government contacts told us Faulkner made taking the job conditional on the impressive Greg Combet being appointed his junior minister.

GILLARD'S STAR FALLS SLIGHTLY -----------------------------

8. (C) Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard was a media darling in 2008, however the rose-colored glasses were lowered in 2009. Gillard was under incrsing scrutiny in her mega-portfolio which includes employment, workplace relations and eduion. There was a budget blowout in the cost of the school infrastructure funding, and some unions are using her industrial relations changes to pursue excessive demands. Nevertheless, she remains Rudd's clr heir apparent. Colues continue to be in awe of her mastery of detail and confident performances.

RUDD POWERFUL, BUT COURTS FACTIONS ----------------------------------

9. (C) Rudd has unprecedented power for a Labor lder; one MP told us he had never seen a Labor Caucus as subservient to its lder, noting Rudd's control over promotions. Another told us she was surprised at marginal st holders' acquiescence on the ETS. However, powerbrokers confide the factions will assert themselves when Rudd's popularity wanes. Possibly aware of this, Rudd in 2009 further courted New South Wales factional hvyweights Anthony Albanese (New South Wales Left) and Mark Arbib (New South Wales Right) and elevated Senator Joe Ludwig (Queensland Right - Swan's faction) to a more senior position in Cabinet. Ludwig is the son of powerful Queensland Right union official Bill Ludwig. One theory is that Rudd is developing a "praetorian guard" based on the historically powerful New South Wales Right to hd off any challenge from Gillard; that it was no accident that Rudd promoted Arbib, Bowen and Clare (all from the New South Wales Right). Bitar, who is close to Arbib and succeeded him as New South Wales eral Secretary, became ALP National Secretary in late 2008.

RISE OF ABBOTT; RUDD'S MAJOR REFORMS STALLED -------------------------------------------

10. (C) Tony Abbott's victory over Malcolm Turnbull for the Liberal ldership on December 1 shattered the likelihood of an emissions trading scheme being legislated by the end of the yr, and probably for the remainder of this parliament. Prior to the coup against Turnbull, conventional wisdom was that Turnbull would survive long enough to ensure sufficient Liberal support for the passage of Rudd's signature first term reform. Turnbull believed in an ETS and warned his colues an rly election trigger on this issue would be "astrophic." The media's focus over the yr on dissent in Coalition ranks, and widesprd confidence the ETS would Qin Coalition ranks, and widesprd confidence the ETS would pass, took pressure off Rudd to sell the scheme to the public. With Abbott intent on running a scare campaign on the issue, Rudd now has go back to the public to build support for a renewed ETS rly in 2010. Rudd will seriously contemplate calling a Double Dissolution election (for only the seventh time in Australia's history) if the dl he offered Turnbull on emissions trading is rejected in February and possibly again in May. (Note: a Double Dissolution election can be held as late as October and a "normal election" is expected September-November 2010.) 11. (C) Another ar Abbott, a former hlth minister, will push the government on is the Rudd,s perceived lack of progress in reforming state-run hospitals. Rudd pledged during the last election that the "buck will stop with me" and thrtened a federal take over of hospitals if the states did not upgrade their performance. Abbott, who is sympathetic to grter federal control, is portraying Rudd as obsessed with burucracy and process, and lacking the will to confront state Labor governments.

SUPPORT FOR U.S. REMAINS STRONG -------------------------------

12. (C) Support for U.S. foreign policy, including the mission in Afghanistan, remained strong within the Labor caucus. Historically, foreign policy symbolized the divide between Labor's Left and Right factions. However, since the end of the Cold War distinctions have blurred, evidenced by the right lning Rudd's cultivation of Faulkner and Combet, both from the Left. There were no grumblings in Caucus over the decision in April to boost the of troops in Afghanistan by 40 percent. The unanimous view is that the U.S. Alliance remains the foundation of Australia's security.

RUDD THE FOREIGN POLICY WONK ----------------------------

13. (C) In 2009, Rudd zlously pursued his "crtive middle power diplomacy," assiduously engaging with international lders in pursuit of new global architectures. Possibly his proudest moment as Prime Minister came in September when the role the G20 was elevated. Rudd devoted significant energy to this, particularly in getting the United States on board. Ironically, the former diplomat Rudd has not boosted resources for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (despite complaining while in Opposition) and has downgraded its influence in decision making. Former Ambassador to the U.S. Dennis Richardson has returned to take up ldership of DFAT, and is expected to push strongly for more resources.

14. (C) COMMENT: After two yrs in , questions are being asked about the Rudd government's appetite for making tough decisions. Rudd will be scrutinized in 2010, accused by some of over-promising and under-delivering, particularly on hlth care issues. The Opposition will highlight Rudd's penchant for lengthy reviews and overss trips and portray the election as a contest between "process man" Rudd versus "act))ylain the ETS and undermine Abbott's credibility on several fronts, while reducing voter backlash over an "rly election." END COMMENT.






194833
3/3/2009 5:41
09CANBERRA213
Embassy Canberra
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN

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C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 000213 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2019 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MARR, AS

SUBJECT: FITZGIBBON AND DEFENCE UNDER FIRE OVER SAS PAY Classified By: Political Counselor James F. Cole, for rsons 1.4 (b) and (d). 1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon and senior Defence officials have come under intense pressure over bungled handling of salary payments to Special Air Service (SAS) troops, the elite special forces who are doing the bulk of Australia's fighting in Afghanistan. In Parliament last week, Fitzgibbon was unable to give a coherent answer when asked why some SAS soldiers on the front lines had their pay reduced to zero, later acknowledging he had ordered the problem fixed four months rlier. The Prime Minister is reportedly furious over this latest embarrassment to his government, with the Opposition and some in the media calling for Fitzgibbon's hd. Fitzgibbon's wk parliamentary performance and his inability to obtain information from ADOD have highlighted tensions between the Minister and the Defence burucracy. Fitzgibbon, an rly supporter of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and close to Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard, will likely survive this incident, however, at lst through the delivery of the Defense white paper and the AUSMIN consultations, both scheduled for April. END SUMMARY

SAS PAY PACKETS REDUCED TO ZERO

2. (SBU) During Parliamentary Question Time on February 24, 25, and 26, Fitzgibbon was questioned reptedly about a salary mixup in which ADOD apparently deducted the entire net pay of SAS soldiers fighting in Afghanistan. The situation began in 2007 when a Defence Tribunal found that some SAS personnel had received extra allowances to which they were not entitled. ADOD began recouping the allowances through payroll deductions that the Opposition claimed reduced some salary payments to zero. Responding in Parliament, Fitzgibbon looked uncomfortable and defensive, spending most of his time criticizing his own department for failing to respond to his requests. Opposition Lder Malcolm Turnbull called for his sacking and initiated a censure motion (handily defted by the governing majority.) On February 27, Fitzgibbon claimed the Opposition had misrd the payslips central to its claims of zero payment. When asked specifically how many SAS were affected by the allowance deduction and how much money had been deducted from their pay, Fitzgibbon replied: "I can't give that figure because Defence can't give it to me."

3. (U) Outside of Parliament, Fitzgibbon told the media he had lrned of the situation in October 2008, and had ordered ADOD to cse all debt recovery action. Last week, however, when some SAS families came forward to complain that the allowances were still being deducted from their pay packets, Fitzgibbon admitted that he could not give absolute assurance that all debt recovery action had csed. On Sunday, March 1, the Minister announced that he had directed ADOD to hire an independent auditing firm to examine salary payment to all special forces so that he could "finally determine once and for all what's going on."

WHO RUNS DEFENCE?

4. (U) Fitzgibbon's lament that he could not get any action or answers from ADOD is not the first complaint from a defense minister about the burucracy his is charged with overseeing. Former Howard Defence Minister Brendan Nelson Qoverseeing. Former Howard Defence Minister Brendan Nelson was reported only last month as saying that "I think its fair to say that at times the uniformed side of Defence finds it difficult to respond to directives that come from civilians in the form of the government and minister of the day." Since becoming Defence Minister in December 2007, Fitzgibbon has clashed with Defence over the timetable for relse of the White Paper and the embedding of journalists with Australian troops in Afghanistan. Apparently, Defence has refused to give the Minister's the raw responses of journalists who responded to a of ADOD's media policy. Last September, Fitzgibbon defended Australian troops over allegations that Taliban prisoners had been kept in "dog pens." Days later it emerged that a "dog pen" was the soldiers' nickname for makeshift enclosures.

WHERE IS THE CIVILIAN DEFENCE SECRETARY?

5. (U) Like the U.S. Department of Defense, ADOD has a civilian burucracy, hded by Secretary Nick Warner, an appointee of former Prime Minister John Howard. Warner, a former diplomat with limited defense experience, is viewed as a wk actor in ADOD and was nowhere to be seen during the payroll controversy. Idlly, ADOD is run by two CEOs: the Secretary and the Chief of the Defence Force (F). In recent yrs, according to the media, the F has become the stronger voice within Defence and the civilian side has withered. This has remained true under current F Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston, a Howard appointee who was extended for another three-yr term after Rudd came into . Former Defence Minister and former Australian Labor Party (ALP) Lder Kim Bzley recently noted "the downgrade of the policy-making capacity of civilians in Defence is crippling."

COMMENT 6. (C/NF) One media report described Fitzgibbon as being "helpless" in dling with the situation, and many thought his performance in Parliament was inadequate, including some of his fellow ALP MPs. It is widely assumed that Fitzgibbon, a former auto repair shop owner with only a brief stint as Shadow Defence Minister before assuming his present role, got his job because he was one of Rudd's rly supporters in the ALP ldership contest with Kim Bzley. While he has proven himself able to master the external elements of his job, he apprs to have little appetite for detail, and he may be somewhat out of his depth in this job. Fitzgibbon's combative, partisan political style and frequent criticism of the previous administration's conduct of defense matters have rankled the ADOD establishment, and doubtless have contributed to his communiions problem within the Defence establishment. Another problem for Fitzgibbon may be the inexperience of his ministerial staff. After the departure of his respected first chief of staff, Dan Cotterill, late last yr, Fitzgibbon elevated 30-yr-old Deputy COS Davina Langton to replace Cotterill. Langton came to the job with no prior experience working in Parliament or on defense issues.

7. (C/NF) Fitzgibbon's job is likely safe for now. He still apprs to have the backing of the Prime Minister and the support of Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Rudd would be unlikely to sack Fitzgibbon before the upcoming relse of the Defence White Paper and the AUSMIN consultations in Washington. Importantly for Rudd, no doubt, Fitzgibbon has been able to engage with his U.S. counterpart, Secretary Gates, in support of his administration's one priority: the U.S. Alliance. Rudd is said to be "livid" with the military chiefs over this issue, however, and if any hds roll, it will likely be from within ADOD. Nevertheless, Fitzgibbon is not out of the woods yet; Rudd's decision last week to add to Fitzgibbon's responsibility the complex defense acquisition portfolio previously managed by Parliamentary Secretary Greg Combet opens up new opportunities for Fitzgibbon to make a costly, high-profile mistake that may again call into question his fitness for the job. CLUNE